Monday 20 June 2016

THE CIRCULAR REASONING OF LYME DISEASE

On and on and on the arguments continue. Once again a paper about testing for Lyme Disease

Current Guidelines, Common Clinical Pitfalls, and Future Directions for Laboratory Diagnosis of Lyme Disease, United States.



But most importantly read the comment 

Circular Reasoning in CDC Lyme Disease Test Review

Raphael B. Stricker, MD; Lorraine Johnson, JD, MBA

Previous studies have shown that commercial two-tier serological testing has a sensitivity of about 46% in later-stage Lyme disease in the USA [1]. Commercial two-tier Lyme testing in Europe demonstrates the same poor test sensitivity [2].

The Table in the latest Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) review by Moore et al. cites three studies allegedly showing that two-tier Lyme testing in later-stage (“non-cutaneous”) Lyme disease has a sensitivity of 87-96% [3]. These numbers will undoubtedly be used to support two-tier testing as a valid diagnostic tool for Lyme disease. Therefore it is important to understand the circular reasoning that produced these inflated and misleading numbers.

Analysis of the three studies cited in the CDC review reveals the following: patients with later-stage Lyme disease had to have positive serology in order to be included in the study, and then they had positive serology. Circular reasoning

Go to the above link to read the comment in it's entirety.

Currently Dept of Health have promised to conduct three reviews on Lyme Disease some details of this are discussed here https://caudwell-lyme.net/2016/06/03/the-uk-governments-independent-lyme-disease-reviews-a-discussion-with-prof-chris-whitty/

Many of us have concerns as to how these reviews will be conducted and how the evidence will be looked at.
The above is a good example of the circular reasoning that has dogged Lyme disease science.

There appears to be no opportunities for patients and their doctors to contribute to the review process and highlight such circular reasoning. 

Saturday 4 June 2016

TICK EXPLOSION IN UK! WHERE IS THE LYME DISEASE WARNING?





In excess of 100 ticks found on one dog after a walk on Ainsdale beach. Southport, Mersyside UK.

These ticks appear to be a mixture of Nymphal and adult ticks in various stages of having fed so possibly acquired on more than one walk.
However this is an exceptionally high number for one animal to collect, it is not as if it rolled in a nest of larva ticks these ticks are in the case of Nymphs have already had one feed from a mammal - ie bird, mouse, rat, human and in the case of adults have already had two feeds from mammals, so have moved widely carried on whatever mammal they fed on.
Another scary point is that one normally doesn't associate ticks with arid landscapes such as beaches but generally with woodland and country areas. So it highlights just how robust the ticks are at surviving even arid conditions.
It is interesting to note the 1000+ shares on the post many of whom I suspect will be from patients already struggling with Lyme Disease and other tick borne diseases.
It is sad however to read many of the 140+ comments especially ones which illustrate a lack of awareness and knowledge about tick borne diseases or the risk dogs and dog owners are to such illnesses.


In the same week there was a report (in the LDUK Discussion group on Facebook) of a family in The Salford area visiting Lyme Park and having to go to A & E to have ticks removed. It took 2 1/2 hours and over 100 ticks were removed from one child - the hospital were reported to say they had had a number of cases from that area.

Since 2015 there has been much awareness of ticks from the Big Tick Project
 http://www.mypetonline.co.uk/big-tick-project

Prof Richard Wall has been interviewed a number of times in which he sates that Ticks are found throughout the UK there are NO hot spot areas, and that Lyme is evenly spread.

There has also been awareness raising from Lyme patients with successive media stories and protests for a number of years. May is Lyme Disease awareness month and details of activities are posted here- 
http://lymediseaseuk.com/2016/05/26/uk-lyme-disease-protest-2016-2/

Meanwhile our Government will take another year or two to respond to these risks with a NICE guideline process and three reviews on testing/diagnosis, treatment and transmission.
https://caudwell-lyme.net/2016/06/03/the-uk-governments-independent-lyme-disease-reviews-a-discussion-with-prof-chris-whitty/

Much more could be done now by Government, NHS, Media to highlight the risks so people can protect themselves, their children and their pets. The costs of not treating an early case of infection can be years of debilitating health problems, with NHS doctors clueless as to how to help us.